Hours after 100 Israeli warplanes launched a preemptive strike on southern Lebanon, targeting thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers, the Middle East braced for a potentially wider conflict involving Iran and its allied militias. The assault, which began at 5 a.m. local time, was based on Israeli intelligence indicating that Hezbollah was preparing to launch a massive missile and drone attack on northern Israel and an intelligence center near Tel Aviv in retaliation for the July killing of its commander.
In response, Israel declared a 48-hour state of emergency and temporarily closed its main airport, prompting several foreign airlines to cancel flights. Hezbollah retaliated by firing over 200 projectiles, according to Israeli officials, though damage was reported to be minimal. One Israeli soldier was killed by falling debris, and three fatalities were reported in Lebanon.
Had Hezbollah succeeded in striking central Israel, the simmering border conflict that has persisted for 10 months could have erupted into a broader war. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed hope that the situation would not escalate into a regional conflict, speaking to reporters during a visit to Canada.
For now, a fragile calm holds. Retired Brigadier General Ilan Biton, former chief of defense for Israel’s air force, praised the successful interception of Hezbollah’s plans, suggesting it might prevent further escalation. Both Israel and Hezbollah have indicated a pause in their operations, despite ongoing low-level clashes. Israel has reopened its main airport and lifted restrictions on public gatherings, signaling that the threat of immediate attack has diminished.
Meanwhile, cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Cairo continued as planned. However, after a Hamas delegation left Cairo, spokesman Osama Hamdan criticized Israel for setting new conditions, accusing the U.S. of offering “false hope” for electoral purposes. Talks are expected to continue in the coming days.
Mike Singh of the Washington Institute suggested that Israel’s exchange with Hezbollah might strengthen cease-fire efforts by demonstrating Israel’s willingness to escalate and Washington’s support for such actions.
Hezbollah claimed its attack, involving over 320 missiles and drones targeting Israeli military sites, was in retaliation for the July 30 killing of its commander Fuad Shukr. Mossad’s base in Glilot was reportedly the main target.
In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting, reaffirming Israel’s commitment to defend its citizens. The U.S. has increased its naval and air defense presence in the region as a warning to Iran and its allies. While Sullivan avoided confirming whether the U.S. was informed in advance of Israel’s attack, he noted continuous communication between the allies.
Despite U.S. support for Israel, some analysts, like Merissa Khurma of the Wilson Center, view the attack as a setback for American diplomacy, which has focused on de-escalation and cease-fire efforts in Gaza. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which began in October when Hezbollah joined Hamas in the fight against Israel, has resulted in significant casualties on both sides.
Efforts to prevent further escalation have been central to international diplomacy. Tensions remain high following Israel’s July 30 airstrike that killed Hezbollah’s military chief, with Iran vowing to retaliate at a time of its choosing. Netanyahu has warned that the recent attack may be just one step in a broader strategy to secure Israel’s northern border.
The U.S. continues to mediate between Lebanon and Israel in hopes of resolving border disputes. Tens of thousands have been evacuated from the border area due to the fighting, with Israel pushing for Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters to allow citizens to return home. Hezbollah, backed by Iran and designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., insists on continuing hostilities until Israel agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, where the conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives since October 7.
