China has revealed plans to build the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, situated in the Tibetan Plateau.
The decision has created controversy, with concerns that it could impact tens of millions of people downstream in India and Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Brahmaputra. In 2020, India issued a warning, stating it would be compelled to construct a 10-gigawatt hydropower dam in its remote eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh if China proceeded with the project in Tibet.
The dam, set to be built in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, is expected to come with a hefty price tag of $40 billion. However, China’s Power Construction Corp has asserted that it could generate an astonishing 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year.
If successful, the project would produce over three times the 88.2 billion kWh designed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, located in central China.
The project is expected to play a key role in helping China achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, while also boosting related industries like engineering and creating jobs in Tibet, according to a report by the official Xinhua news agency on Wednesday.
A stretch of the Yarlung Zangbo plunges a dramatic 2,000 meters (6,561 feet) over just 50 kilometers (31 miles), presenting immense hydropower potential alongside significant engineering challenges.
The cost of constructing the dam, including engineering expenses, is anticipated to surpass that of the Three Gorges Dam, which totaled 254.2 billion yuan ($34.83 billion). This figure also covered the resettlement of 1.4 million people displaced by the project and was more than four times the initial estimate of 57 billion yuan.
Authorities have not yet disclosed how many people the Tibet project would displace or detailed its potential impact on the local ecosystem, which is one of the richest and most diverse on the Tibetan Plateau.
According to Chinese officials, hydropower projects in Tibet, which they claim contain more than a third of China’s hydroelectric power potential, will not significantly impact the environment or downstream water supplies.
One likely reason the massive dam project has received approval is its potential to create thousands of new jobs, amid growing concerns over China’s high youth unemployment rate and economic slowdown.
India and Bangladesh have raised concerns about all the dams China is constructing on the Yarlung Zangbo, warning that they could disrupt not only the local ecology but also the flow and course of the river downstream.
Concerns Rise Over China’s Massive New Dam in Tibet
Approximately 70% of Bangladesh’s population is believed to reside in the Brahmaputra basin.
Scholars have accused China of “weaponizing” its water resources in Tibet, with a paper published in March this year stating: “China’s control over water flow presents a significant concern for lower riparian states, as it has the potential to impact water security, economic development, environmental stability, and geopolitical relations.”
“Such control could negatively affect the water security of these states.”
Jayantha Dhanapala, a former UN undersecretary-general, has stated that China’s “water diplomacy” is often perceived as coercive and generates suspicions regarding China’s intentions.
Vietnam and India have both accused China of using its water resources as a tool for political leverage. Vietnam “claims that China’s construction of dams on the Mekong River is intended to divert water away from Vietnam, while India accuses China of building dams on the Brahmaputra River to reduce water flow into India,” according to Neeraj Manhus and Dr. Rahul Lad.
China views transboundary rivers as “sovereign resources within its jurisdiction, to be utilized as it sees fit,” according to the scholars. They also note that China “considers international water conventions and legally binding treaties regarding transboundary rivers as conflicting with its national interests and sovereignty.”
Beijing, they noted, declined to sign the UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses in 1997. The convention aims to establish norms for the cooperation and management of transboundary rivers among riparian countries, based on principles of mutual benefit and collaboration.
China’s hydrological dominance over these rivers has sparked debate about whether its actions are harmful or advantageous, especially in relation to the Mekong and the Yarlung Tsangpo.
The Yarlung Zangbo transforms into the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet, flowing southward through India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states before reaching Bangladesh.
China began constructing hydropower dams on the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo in 2015, with the river flowing from west to east across Tibet.
A new concern with the latest proposal is that China may be planning to divert water that would typically flow through India and Bangladesh as part of a long-term project to transfer water to the Gobi Desert.
According to Manhaus and Lad, “The proposed western route of the South-North Water Transfer Project seeks to channel water from the Yangtze River in southern China to the arid Gobi Desert in the north. Construction of the project’s east and central canals is already underway, with the completion of all three channels expected by 2050.”
“The potential involvement of the Brahmaputra River in this project raises concerns about its impact on water availability downstream in India and Bangladesh,” they added.
“Despite sharing the major transboundary river, the Brahmaputra, India and China lack a formal water-sharing agreement, deepening worries and uncertainties regarding China’s dam-building activities.”
