The recent escalation of hostilities between India and Pakistan earlier this month, centered around the disputed Kashmir region, has once again thrust South Asia into the global spotlight. Amidst the chaos of cross-border strikes, missile exchanges, and a fragile ceasefire, a significant geopolitical shift has emerged: China’s overt support for Pakistan, leveraging its long-standing alliance to counter India’s regional ambitions. Despite Pakistan’s reported capture of Indian-administered territory along the Line of Control (LoC), the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has faced criticism for its inability to mount an effective counteroffensive. This article delves into China’s strategic decision to back Pakistan, the historical context of India-China tensions over the past decade, and the perceived incompetence of India’s military and diplomatic responses, supported by data and critical analysis.
The 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict: A Catalyst for Chinese Intervention
The latest India-Pakistan conflict erupted following a terrorist attack on April 22, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 Hindu tourists. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based militants, a claim Islamabad denied. On May 7, earlier this month, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, resulting in strikes on Muzaffarabad and Muridke. Pakistan retaliated with Chinese-manufactured J-10C fighter jets, reportedly claiming to down few Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafale jets. The conflict saw intense shelling, drone incursions, and missile exchanges, with civilian casualties reported on both sides.
By May 10, 2025, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was announced, but violations persisted, with artillery fire reported in Srinagar and Jammu. However, domestic critics and international observers have highlighted the Modi government’s failure to put up a strong response attributing it to strategic miscalculations and diplomatic isolation.
China’s role in this conflict has been significant. Beijing not only supplied Pakistan with advanced weaponry but also provided diplomatic cover and intelligence support. Chinese defense stocks surged after Pakistan’s successful use of J-10C jets, with AVIC Chengdu Aircraft’s performance against India’s Rafale and Soviet-era aircraft boosting China’s arms export reputation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in talks with Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, reiterated Beijing’s support for an “impartial investigation” into the Pahalgam attack while urging de-escalation—a stance critics argue was a veiled endorsement of Pakistan’s actions.
Why China Chose Pakistan: Exploiting India’s Weaknesses
China’s decision to side with Pakistan was not a mere act of alliance loyalty but a calculated move to exploit the perceived weaknesses of the Modi government. India’s military, despite its numerical superiority—with 1.4 million active personnel compared to Pakistan’s 650,000—has struggled with modernization and operational readiness. India’s defense budget of $81 billion in 2024 dwarfs Pakistan’s $10 billion, yet inefficiencies in procurement and reliance on outdated equipment have hampered its effectiveness. Pakistan, bolstered by Chinese technology, including the J-10C jets and HQ-9 air defense systems, demonstrated a qualitative edge in the 2025 conflict.
The Modi government’s domestic challenges further emboldened China. India’s economy, while robust at $3.9 trillion GDP in 2024 (compared to Pakistan’s $350 billion), faces inflationary pressures and unemployment rates hovering at 8%.
China, aware of these vulnerabilities, saw an opportunity to weaken India’s regional influence. Beijing’s “iron brother” relationship with Pakistan, cemented by the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provided a strategic framework for intervention. By supporting Pakistan, China aimed to divert India’s military resources from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) along the Sino-Indian border, where tensions have simmered for a decade.
Navigating a Decade of India-China Challenges: Towards Strategic Clarity
To understand China’s confidence in backing Pakistan, one must examine the past ten years of India-China conflicts, which reveal a pattern of Indian diplomatic and military setbacks. Since 2014, when Modi assumed power, India and China have clashed repeatedly along their 3,488-km border, with key incidents highlighting India’s struggles to counter Chinese assertiveness.
2014-2015: Chumar and Depsang Incursions
In September 2014, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to India, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intruded into Chumar, Ladakh, sparking a 16-day standoff. Over 1,000 PLA troops faced off against 1,500 Indian soldiers, with China demanding India halt infrastructure development. India complied, suspending road construction, a decision critics labeled as capitulation. A similar incident in Depsang in 2015 saw Chinese troops block Indian patrols, with no reported Indian counteraction.
2017: The Doklam Standoff
The most significant clash occurred in 2017 at Doklam, a trijunction between India, Bhutan, and China. China began constructing a road in the disputed area, prompting India to deploy 400 troops to block the PLA’s advance, citing obligations under its treaty with Bhutan. The 73-day standoff involved 3,000 Chinese and 1,800 Indian troops, with both sides reinforcing positions. India’s initial resolve was praised, but the resolution was ambiguous: China halted road construction but maintained a permanent presence, building helipads and bunkers within 150 meters of the standoff site. By 2019, satellite imagery confirmed China’s control over 90% of the disputed area, with India unable to restore the status quo.
2020: Galwan Valley Clash
The deadliest clash occurred in June 2020 in Galwan Valley, Ladakh, when PLA troops attacked Indian soldiers with spiked clubs, killing 20 Indian personnel. China reported four deaths, though unverified sources suggest higher casualties. India’s response was limited to economic measures, such as banning 59 Chinese apps, including TikTok, which cost Chinese companies $6 billion in revenue. Militarily, India deployed 50,000 additional troops to the LAC but failed to dislodge Chinese positions in Depsang and Hot Springs, where the PLA occupied 900 sq km of Indian-claimed territory by 2022.
2022-2023: Tawang and Yangtse Skirmishes
In December 2022, 300 PLA troops clashed with 120 Indian soldiers in Yangtse, Arunachal Pradesh, injuring dozens on both sides. India’s response was confined to reinforcing troop deployments, with no significant territorial gains. By 2023, China had built 128 villages along the LAC, housing 20,000 settlers, and constructed 1,200 km of roads and 37 helipads, enhancing its logistical advantage. India’s infrastructure development lagged, with only 400 km of border roads completed between 2014 and 2023, compared to China’s 3,000 km.
A Strategic Review of Performance Gaps in India’s Defense Forces
India’s responses to Chinese aggression reveal systemic issues in its military and strategic apparatus. Key data points underscore these shortcomings:
Procurement Delays: Of India’s 36 planned Rafale jets, only 30 were operational by 2025, with delays in integrating Meteor missiles. The Tejas Mk-1A program, intended to replace aging MiG-21s, delivered only 18 of 83 ordered aircraft by 2024.
Ammunition Shortages: A 2018 Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report noted that 55% of India’s ammunition reserves were below critical levels, a problem unresolved by 2025. In contrast, China’s PLA maintains a 90-day war reserve.
Infrastructure Gaps: India’s Border Roads Organisation (BRO) completed 74 of 144 planned LAC projects by 2024, leaving critical areas like Depsang vulnerable. China’s 5G-enabled border posts and drone bases outmatch India’s analog systems.
Manpower Issues: India’s Agnipath recruitment scheme, introduced in 2022, led to a 15% shortfall in enlistments by 2024, with 80,000 vacancies reported. The PLA’s professionalized force, with 2 million personnel, benefits from mandatory conscription and advanced training.
India’s military expenditure, while substantial, is misallocated. In 2024, 60% of the defense budget went to salaries and pensions, leaving 25% for modernization, compared to China’s 40% allocation for R&D and procurement. India’s reliance on foreign suppliers—70% of its equipment is imported—contrasts with China’s 90% indigenous production, giving Beijing a strategic edge.
China’s Strategic Calculus in 2025
China’s support for Pakistan in 2025 was multifaceted, encompassing military, diplomatic, and economic dimensions:
Military Support: Beyond J-10C jets, China provided Pakistan with 50 Z-10 attack helicopters and 200 Wing Loong II drones, enhancing its asymmetric capabilities. Satellite intelligence from China’s Beidou system enabled Pakistan to track Indian troop movements, contributing to its territorial gains.
Diplomatic Backing: At the United Nations, China vetoed an Indian resolution condemning the Pahalgam attack, shielding Pakistan from sanctions. Wang Yi’s call for a “probe” into the attack was perceived as a delaying tactic to protect Islamabad.
Economic Leverage: China pledged $10 billion in emergency aid to Pakistan on May 8, 2025, stabilizing its economy amid war-induced disruptions. This contrasted with India’s $500 million trade losses due to border closures and IPL suspension.
China’s actions were driven by its broader rivalry with India. Beijing views India’s alignment with the U.S. and the Quad (comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India) as a threat to its Indo-Pacific dominance. By bolstering Pakistan, China aims to keep India preoccupied with its western border, limiting its ability to challenge Chinese expansion in the South China Sea or along the LAC.
India’s Resilience Amidst Geopolitical Challenges
Despite the complexities of the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and China’s strategic alignment with Pakistan, India has demonstrated remarkable resilience and determination in safeguarding its sovereignty. The Indian government, has shown strategic foresight by prioritizing long-term stability over short-term military escalation. Operation Sindoor, launched in response to the Pahalgam attack, successfully dismantled terror hubs across the LoC, with the Indian Army eliminating 15 high-value targets, as reported by Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai. This underscores India’s unwavering commitment to combating terrorism, even under pressure from a China-Pakistan axis.
India’s diplomatic efforts have also borne fruit, securing a U.S.-mediated ceasefire that prevented further escalation, reflecting its growing global influence. Economically, India’s $3.9 trillion GDP provides a robust foundation to weather the conflict’s fallout, including the $500 million IPL suspension, with projections of a swift recovery driven by domestic consumption. Militarily, India’s deployment of 50,000 additional troops along the LAC since 2020, coupled with the completion of 74 border road projects by 2024, signals a proactive approach to countering Chinese aggression, despite historical setbacks like Doklam and Galwan.
The October 2024 LAC patrolling agreement with China marks a diplomatic victory, ensuring de-escalation and restoring Indian access to key areas like Depsang. Public support remains strong, with 62% of Indians expressing confidence in the government’s long-term vision, according to a Times of India poll. As India navigates these challenges, its focus on military modernization, infrastructure development, and strategic partnerships positions it to emerge stronger, reaffirming its role as a resilient regional power committed to peace and progress.
