Global temperatures are set to remain at or near record-breaking highs through the end of the decade, according to a stark new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released on May 28, 2025. The WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update warns that the planet is teetering on the edge of critical climate tipping points, with the Arctic experiencing warming more than three times the global average—a trend that scientists say could have irreversible consequences for the global climate system.
The report forecasts that the average global near-surface temperature from 2025 to 2029 will likely fall between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). Alarmingly, there is an 86% chance that at least one of those years will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold set under the Paris Agreement—a key target designed to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change. Additionally, there is a 70% likelihood that the five-year average itself will cross that limit.
While the world has not yet breached the 1.5°C line when averaged over decades, the increasing frequency of year-to-year overshoots is a troubling sign. Scientists warn that even short-term exceedances can trigger or accelerate feedback loops—such as melting permafrost, loss of sea ice, and shifting ocean currents—that could make future warming harder to reverse.
The WMO’s findings come as 2024 was officially declared the hottest year on record, with global temperatures rising to 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 average. The intense heat was widespread, affecting the tropics, North America, North Africa, Europe, and parts of Asia. The five-year period from 2020 to 2024 also ranked among the hottest ever recorded, driven in part by persistent La Niña conditions over three consecutive years. These conditions altered global weather patterns and intensified warming over land and in polar regions.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas emphasized the urgency of the findings, stating, “We are playing with fire. Each fraction of a degree matters, and the risks of crossing the 1.5°C threshold—even temporarily—are profound. This report is a wake-up call for immediate and sustained climate action.”
Climate experts say the continued use of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial emissions remain the primary drivers of global warming. Without dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the world risks making these extreme conditions the new normal.
The report calls for accelerated global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewable energy, and adapt to the growing impacts of a warming world. As the planet approaches critical thresholds, the window to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change is rapidly closing.
