A groundbreaking study published in The Lancet medical journal has warned that deep cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) could result in more than 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030 — including over 4.5 million children under five.
The alarming projection follows the Trump administration’s return to power in January 2025 and its swift move to slash USAID funding by 83%. In March, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that over 80% of USAID programs had been terminated after a rapid six-week review, with remaining functions being folded into the State Department under stricter oversight. Officials have defended the restructuring as a step toward “efficiency.”
For decades, USAID has been a lifeline for low- and middle-income nations, supporting health and humanitarian efforts across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. According to the study’s authors, the cuts threaten to undo critical progress in the fight against malaria, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other preventable diseases.
Drawing on health data from 133 countries spanning 20 years, researchers estimate that USAID initiatives helped avert 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 — including 30 million child deaths. Nations that received robust USAID support saw a 15% drop in overall mortality and a 32% drop in child deaths. HIV/AIDS mortality fell by 65%, and deaths from malaria and neglected tropical diseases were cut in half.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Davide Rasella of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, said the withdrawal of support could be “comparable in scale to a global pandemic or major armed conflict” for many vulnerable nations.
Despite the outsized impact, USAID accounted for only a small fraction of U.S. federal spending — about 0.3% in 2024, or roughly 17 cents per American per day. “If people understood how far even that small amount goes, I believe most would support continued funding,” said co-author James Macinko of UCLA.
The researchers also raised concerns over a potential domino effect, with countries like Germany, the UK, and France already planning similar aid reductions — a trend that could exacerbate the global health crisis.
The report emerges as world leaders convene in Seville, Spain, for the largest global aid summit in a decade — notably without U.S. participation. The absence is striking amid growing concerns over America’s shifting priorities.
The USAID cuts come as the U.S. faces criticism for its military and financial support to Israel amid accusations of genocide in Gaza. A report from Brown University’s Watson Institute found the U.S. has funneled \$22.76 billion into Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and operations against Yemen’s Houthis — through military financing, arms sales, and weapons stockpile transfers.
On the same day The Lancet study was released, Washington announced a fresh \$510 million weapons package to Israel, including thousands of JDAM bomb guidance kits.
