The Pacific Ocean is warming as a strong El Niño develops, with forecasts pointing to a peak around December and raising concerns about possible effects on weather patterns worldwide, including in India.
Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached around 30°C on October 22, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Scientists monitor this region closely to track El Niño, a climate phenomenon that can influence rainfall and temperatures across large parts of the world.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record levels between October and December, with the current El Niño expected to peak around December.
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual. The warming alters atmospheric circulation, affecting winds and the movement of rain-bearing clouds. Its effects can extend far beyond the Pacific, influencing rainfall, droughts and heat in different parts of the world.
Forecasts suggest the current event could reach 3.7°C above the long-term average during October-December, surpassing the previous peak of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016. These figures refer to temperature anomalies, which measure how far ocean temperatures differ from the long-term average, rather than the actual temperature of the water.
For India, the developing El Niño comes amid concerns over rainfall and heat. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with rainfall around 13% below normal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The WMO’s October outlook also indicates that much of South Asia could experience above-normal temperatures in the coming months. Rainfall forecasts point to a greater likelihood of below-normal precipitation across large parts of central and southern peninsular South Asia during October-December.
El Niño does not determine India’s weather on its own. The country’s rainfall and temperatures are influenced by several factors, including other climate patterns and regional weather conditions. However, a strong El Niño can affect monsoon behaviour and increase the risk of heat and rainfall disruptions.
The event is expected to remain strong into early 2027, according to forecasts. Scientists will continue to track ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions to assess how the phenomenon develops and what it could mean for weather in India and elsewhere.
This article was prepared with AI assistance and is based on information available in the public domain.
