Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is on course to be the largest party in Israel’s 26th Knesset, and his right-wing and religious bloc leads the count. But with more than half the ballots tallied on Wednesday, neither he nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot has a path to the 61 seats needed to govern alone.
By 7:26 am Israel time (10:56 am IST), 2.76 million votes had been counted. Likud held 20.81% of valid votes against 17.06% for Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party, according to Central Elections Committee (CEC) figures compiled by JNS. The latest seat projection from the count, published by The Times of Israel, gives Netanyahu’s bloc 56 seats, the opposition 49 and the two Arab-led parties 15.
That is a sharp turnaround. Every major pre-election poll had Yashar ahead of Likud, and the first exit polls on Tuesday night had the opposition bloc narrowly in front. The result now hinges on more than 650,000 double-envelope ballots — from soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and others — which are counted last, and on which small parties clear the 3.25% threshold.
: This is Israel’s first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and it comes after a nearly eight-month war with Iran this year. Netanyahu, 19-plus years in office in total, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Turnout reached 77.7%, about seven points above 2022; by 8 pm it was already the highest at that hour since 1988, the CEC said.
The Numbers
Netanyahu’s bloc moved from six seats behind in the final polls to seven ahead in the count — yet at no point has either side reached 61.
Channel 12 polls (Ynet); CEC partial counts via Demócrata, Anadolu, The Times of Israel · 27–28 Oct 2026
In raw votes, the gap between the blocs is about 100,000 ballots so far. Shares below are of valid votes with 2.76 million counted; the remaining 17% or so went to the Arab-led parties and to lists that may miss the threshold.
| Party or bloc | Votes counted | Share of valid votes |
| Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism) | 1,185,530 | 43.2% |
| Opposition bloc (four parties below) | 1,085,859 | 39.5% |
| Likud | 571,627 | 20.8% |
| Yashar | 468,460 | 17.1% |
| B’Yachad | 252,883 | 9.2% |
| The Democrats | 194,528 | 7.1% |
| Yisrael Beytenu | 169,988 | 6.2% |
Source: CEC figures as of 7:26 am Israel time, compiled by JNS. Opposition share calculated by FOEJ Media from the same figures.
How the Night Unfolded
The story of the night is a reversal: exit polls that favoured the opposition at 10 pm had flipped toward Netanyahu by dawn, and the official count has kept him ahead since. Times are Israel local time (IST is 3 hours 30 minutes ahead).
| When (Israel time) | What happened |
| Wed 28 Oct, morning | Donald Trump tells reporters his endorsement “helped him a lot” and amplifies a supporter’s post on Truth Social (AA, JPost) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 7:26 am | 2,758,594 votes counted: Likud 20.81%, Yashar 17.06%, B’Yachad 9.21% (JNS) |
| Wed 28 Oct, 5:58 am | 41.9% of ballot boxes counted: Netanyahu bloc 57, opposition 47, Arab parties 16 (Demócrata) |
| Wed 28 Oct, ~2:30 am | First 100,000 ballots counted: Likud about 27%, Yashar about 17% (The Jewish Chronicle) |
| Wed 28 Oct, overnight | Revised exit polls flip: Channels 11 and 12 put Netanyahu’s bloc at 57, Channel 13 at 53; opposition falls to 47 on all three (JPost) |
| Tue 27 Oct, 10 pm | Polls close at 77.7% turnout. Channel 12 exit poll: opposition 52, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 18. Pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 alone shows his bloc at 60 (Ynet, NBC News) |
| Tue 27 Oct, 8 pm | Turnout at 74.3% (5.45 million voters), highest at that hour since 1988; CEC rejects Likud request to extend voting (Ynet, The Times of Israel) |
| Final pre-vote polls | All three main broadcasters put Yashar first; Channel 12 gives the opposition 56 seats to Netanyahu’s 50 (Ynet) |
| Sun 18 Oct | Trump issues a “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Netanyahu on Truth Social (AP via KOLD) |
Early tallies over-represent stations that report quickly, and the double-envelope ballots still to come have shifted seats in past elections. Seat projections from a partial count are indicative, not final.
The Players and their Red Lines
The arithmetic is stuck because the leaders’ own vetoes rule out most paths to 61. Netanyahu refuses any government backed by Arab parties; Eisenkot refuses to serve under Netanyahu; and the Arab parties hold a record share of seats that most of the opposition will not rely on.
| Party | Leader | Bloc | Exit-poll range (seats) |
| Likud | Benjamin Netanyahu | Netanyahu | 27–28 |
| Yashar | Gadi Eisenkot | Opposition | 21–22 |
| B’Yachad (“Together”) | Naftali Bennett | Opposition | 12–14 |
| The Democrats | Yair Golan | Opposition | 9–10 |
| Yisrael Beytenu | Avigdor Liberman | Opposition | 7–9 |
| United Torah Judaism | — | Netanyahu | 6–7 |
| Otzma Yehudit | Itamar Ben-Gvir | Netanyahu | 6–7 |
| Shas | — | Netanyahu | 6 |
| Religious Zionism–Zehut | Bezalel Smotrich | Netanyahu | 6 |
| Joint List and Ra’am (combined) | Arab-led parties | Neither | 16–19 |
Ranges are from the Channel 11, 12 and 13 exit polls as compiled by The Jerusalem Post; the count will set final numbers. Two small right-wing lists, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists, are projected to miss the threshold — wasted votes that hurt Netanyahu’s bloc.
Netanyahu has called for a “national right-wing government” and said his camp holds a decisive majority among the “Zionist public”. He has ruled out any coalition that leans on Arab parties, which he accuses of being anti-Zionist (Times of Israel, AFP).
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, says the country voted for change and that a repeat election would be a mistake. He has rejected serving under Netanyahu even in a rotation deal, and told security chiefs that Netanyahu is now a caretaker (JPost). Bennett, Lapid and Golan all declared the Netanyahu bloc beaten on the strength of the first exit polls.
The Arab parties are the night’s other headline. Ra’am and the Joint List are projected at a combined 16–19 seats, their strongest showing ever, after the Supreme Court on October 2 overturned a CEC vote to bar both from running (Al Jazeera). Opposition leaders other than Golan have largely ruled out governing with them. Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas told Channel 12 that, on the current numbers, no government can be formed.
The ultra-Orthodox parties are the swing to watch. According to an N12 report cited in live coverage, a Shas source did not rule out working with Eisenkot if a “reasonable” military conscription law were agreed — the issue that has split Haredi voters from Netanyahu’s camp. FOEJ Media has not independently confirmed that report.
The Trump factor
Donald Trump is claiming credit for Netanyahu’s comeback, but the evidence that his endorsement moved votes is circumstantial. What is clear is that the polls shifted after it.
Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Truth Social on October 18, nine days before the vote, warning that if Israel picked anyone else, America would have to confront Iran alone (AP via KOLD). He had backed Netanyahu in earlier Israeli elections too, but this time held back for months amid friction: he called Netanyahu “crazy” in June over Lebanon, and Netanyahu rejected a US Gaza ceasefire plan in August.
On Wednesday Trump said the endorsement had helped Netanyahu “a lot”, adding that he had not yet spoken to him (Anadolu). He also reposted a supporter’s claim that “the whole tide turned” after the endorsement.
Israeli analysts were divided before the vote. Bar-Ilan University’s Ilana Shpaizman expected little effect on the public, while Nimrod Novik of the Israel Policy Forum argued it could mobilise disillusioned Netanyahu voters worth three to six seats (The Hill). Exit-poll data suggest some right-wing voters consolidated behind Likud at the expense of Otzma Yehudit — consistent with either reading.
Washington’s preferences may still shape what comes next. The Jerusalem Post, citing US sources, reported that Trump would prefer a coalition without Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, whom he sees as linked to settler violence. Netanyahu, for his part, said Israel has a “unique opportunity” with Trump to remove the Iranian threat for good (AFP).
How Israel’s system works, and what happens next
The party with the most seats does not automatically govern; the job goes to whoever can assemble 61 votes in the 120-seat Knesset. Israelis vote for national party lists, not candidates, and seats are shared out in proportion to votes among lists that clear 3.25% of the vote.
Israel’s government-formation process · 4 steps, 4 possible outcomes
President Isaac Herzog nominates the lawmaker he judges most likely to command a majority, after consulting every faction. The nominee has 28 days, extendable by 14. If that fails, the mandate can pass to another lawmaker before the Knesset is dissolved and a new election called. Commentators have raised a unity government, but Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation (JPost).
A familiar deadlock, a new level of engagement
Israel has been here before. This is its sixth national election since 2019 (Al Jazeera); four votes between April 2019 and March 2021 produced hung parliaments or short-lived governments. The 2021 coalition under Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid broke the pattern by including Ra’am, the first Arab-led party to join an Israeli government, before collapsing in 2022. Netanyahu returned that November with Likud on 32 seats (Wikipedia).
Turnout, Israeli Knesset elections 2019–2026 · JDN, Wikipedia, The Jerusalem Post (CEC data)
What is different this time is the scale of participation, including among Arab citizens, whose parties are on course for their best result. Higher turnout also raises the number of votes needed to clear the 3.25% threshold, which is why small lists on both sides are at risk.
What it means for India
For New Delhi, the result matters less for who wins than for whether Israel gets a stable government soon — because several live bilateral projects were agreed with Netanyahu’s government this year and now need a partner to carry them through.
• A new partnership tier. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February 25–26 visit, the two countries raised ties to a “Special Strategic Partnership” covering defence, AI, quantum technologies and critical minerals (ThePrint/PTI). Modi also addressed the Knesset.
• A trade deal mid-negotiation. The first round of India–Israel free trade agreement talks ran February 23–26 in New Delhi. Merchandise trade stood at $3.62 billion in 2024-25 (Dawn). A caretaker period of weeks or months could slow the next rounds.
• Jobs for Indian workers. Israel agreed in February to admit up to 50,000 more Indian workers over five years, extending into manufacturing and food services (Business Today). India’s External Affairs Ministry told Parliament there were about 32,000 Indian workers in Israel as of October 2024, roughly 12,000 of whom arrived after the October 2023 attack (ThePrint). Their recruitment filled gaps left when Palestinian labourers were barred.
• Security and the Iran war. Any government’s Iran policy affects Indian nationals in Israel and the wider Gulf, and India’s energy and shipping costs. India also maintains ties with Tehran, including the Chabahar port project, a balance a more hawkish Israeli government could test.
The broad direction of India–Israel ties has survived changes of government in both countries since full relations were established in 1992. The near-term risk for New Delhi is delay, not reversal.
Sources:
• JNS — vote count at 2.76 million ballots
• The Jerusalem Post — exit polls, turnout, party ranges
• The Jerusalem Post — Trump claims credit
• Ynet — first exit polls and turnout at 8 pm
• Ynet — final pre-election polls
• The Times of Israel — live blog, October 28
• The Times of Israel — live blog, October 27
• Anadolu Agency — Trump remarks
• AP via KOLD — Trump’s endorsement
• The Hill — analysts on the endorsement
• Al Jazeera — the election explained
• ThePrint/PTI — Special Strategic Partnership
• Dawn/Reuters — FTA talks and trade figure
• Business Today — 50,000 worker quota
• ThePrint — MEA data on Indian workers
