Nobody won Israel’s October 27 election outright. Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc fell to 53 of 120 seats, eight short of a majority, while Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc took 48 and the Arab-led parties a record 19.
The arithmetic leaves Netanyahu with two routes to stay in office: split Eisenkot’s camp, or bring Eisenkot himself in. Publicly he has dismissed a unity government. Privately, Likud sources told i24 News on Monday he is “examining every option”, including a coalition with Yashar Kan separately reported he is interested in a unity deal guaranteed by President Isaac Herzog and US President Donald Trump.
What drives the hedge is fear of the alternative: an Eisenkot-led government resting on Arab-party votes, and possibly ultra-Orthodox ones. Herzog opens consultations on Wednesday, November 4, the same day official results are due.
Netanyahu’s options
Netanyahu is eight seats short and has no obvious partner, so every path he has runs through his opponents. The Times of Israel’s analysis lists three: a unity government, defections, or waiting for the opposition to fail and forcing a new election.
| Path | What it needs | Main obstacle |
| Unity government with Eisenkot | Yashar’s 21 seats; possibly a rotation, with Herzog and Trump as guarantors per Kan | Eisenkot has repeatedly ruled out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation; Likud itself reportedly ruled out rotation on Sunday |
| Defections from the opposition | Eight MKs from Yashar, B’Yachad or Yisrael Beytenu | Anti-defection rules; one or two defectors, enough in 2022, will not do |
| Deadlock and a new election | Opposition fails to agree; Netanyahu stays caretaker | Record Arab turnout and some 70,000 voters flown in from abroad would be hard to repeat, but a 61-seat win is not assured |
The unity option is the one now in play. Sources close to Likud told i24 the prime minister is keeping it open despite public denials. His concern, they said, is that Eisenkot could stitch together Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox support to remove him A unity deal of Likud, Shas, UTJ and Yashar alone would add up to exactly 61, without Otzma Yehudit or Religious Zionism.
The rhetoric points the other way. Netanyahu has suggested it would be treasonous for Eisenkot to ally with Arab parties . Opponents read that, and the fraud claims below, as an attempt to block an alternative government before it forms.
An outside shock could change the calculation. The Times of Israel notes that a renewed war with Iran is the scenario most likely to push rivals into a unity government, as October 7 did in 2023. Trump and Netanyahu spoke on Saturday amid reports of preparations for new strikes on Iran.
Eisenkot and the Arab-party question
The anti-Netanyahu parties hold 67 seats, but only 48 belong to Jewish-majority parties, and most of their leaders campaigned against depending on Arab votes. That is the opposition’s core dilemma.
| Party | Seats | Leader | Stated position (as of Nov 2) |
| Yashar | 21 | Gadi Eisenkot | Does not want a government dependent on Arab lists, but has not explicitly rejected outside support; rules out serving under Netanyahu |
| B’Yachad | 12 | Naftali Bennett | Will recommend Eisenkot to Herzog (announced Nov 1) |
| The Democrats | 8 | Yair Golan | Only Zionist party openly backing cooperation with Arab parties; in talks with Joint List leaders |
| Yisrael Beytenu | 7 | Avigdor Liberman | Pledged no government reliant on Arab parties; also rules out serving under Netanyahu |
| Joint List | 11 | Yousef Jabareen | Will recommend an anti-Netanyahu candidate, presumably Eisenkot; offers support from outside |
| Ra’am | 8 | Mansour Abbas | Expected to recommend Eisenkot; open to joining a coalition, as it did in 2021 |
The precedent is mixed. Ra’am is the only Arab party ever to sit in an Israeli government, in the Bennett-Lapid coalition of 2021-22, which collapsed after a year. That government won its confidence vote 60-59.
Eisenkot has two minority-government routes on the table:
- Arab outside support. The four Zionist opposition parties, perhaps with Ra’am inside, backed from outside by the Joint List under a confidence-and-supply deal. This costs Bennett and Liberman their campaign pledges and risks right-wing defections.
- Haredi abstention. United Torah Judaism, frustrated over the draft-exemption law, has reportedly weighed abstaining so an Eisenkot government can pass a confidence vote. With UTJ’s 7 out, Netanyahu’s bloc would muster 46 votes against the opposition’s 48. The price would be concessions on Haredi conscription, a central opposition promise.
Street pressure runs both ways. About 2,000 people rallied in Tel Aviv on October 31 for a Jewish-Arab government. A few dozen protested outside Eisenkot’s home on Sunday against any such alliance The opposition is also reported to be weighing a bill for direct prime-ministerial elections and moving to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana.
The fight over the results
The results will stand. Election chief Justice Noam Sohlberg said on November 1 that even if suspicions of foreign interference are proven, they would not undermine the vote’s integrity or its overall outcome. He said so flanked by the Shin Bet director and the attorney general
Likud has nonetheless claimed, without evidence that any irregularity changed the outcome, that Arab parties “stole” the election. Police have said they found no evidence of the widespread fraud Likud alleges.
| Date (2026) | Event |
| Nov 1 | Court grants police only part of their requests on the 3 original suspects: one released on conditions, one under house arrest for 8 days, one held 2 more days |
| Nov 1 | Sohlberg, Shin Bet chief David Zini and AG Gali Baharav-Miara say the vote was properly run and results won’t change; Likud says a cloud hangs over them until the probe ends |
| Nov 1 | Eisenkot accuses Netanyahu of an organised campaign to delegitimise the result, including insinuations that Qatar backed the opposition |
| Oct 30 | Mossad reported to assist the Shin Bet, focusing on Qatar-related intelligence; Qatar denies interfering |
| Oct 29 | Sohlberg asks the Shin Bet to investigate suspected foreign funding and election bribery, requesting findings within a week |
| Oct 29 | Police arrest 4 more suspects allegedly linked to Ra’am; Ra’am denies involvement |
| Oct 27 | 3 activists arrested before polls open, carrying envelopes of cash allegedly meant to buy votes for Ra’am |
The foreign-interference probe concerns alleged funds from Qatar and possibly Turkey routed to groups in Arab communities to lift turnout . Ra’am’s Mansour Abbas has called the arrests an attempt to influence the result, while publicly welcoming the Shin Bet probe Qatar has denied funding any effort to sway the vote.
The timing gives the dispute weight. Arab turnout hit a record, with nearly 840,000 votes for Ra’am and the Joint List, up 64% on 2022 Casting doubt on those votes also casts doubt on any government that relies on them.
