A new climate report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday warned that there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will become hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded.
The report, produced by the UK Met Office, also projected a 91 per cent likelihood that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5°C threshold is considered a critical benchmark under the Paris Climate Agreement. Scientists have repeatedly warned that sustained warming beyond this level would significantly increase the risks of extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, rising sea levels and large-scale displacement.
However, the report clarified that temporary breaches of the threshold do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals have failed, since the agreement measures warming trends over decades rather than isolated years.
Still, the findings point to the rapid acceleration of global warming and the growing intensity of climate-related disruptions worldwide.
According to the report, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to remain between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. Scientists also estimated a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.
The report also raised concerns over the rapidly warming Arctic region, where temperatures are forecast to rise far faster than the global average.
During the next five northern hemisphere winters, Arctic temperatures are expected to average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline , more than three-and-a-half times the projected global average warming during the same period.
Scientists warned that Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Reduced sea ice accelerates warming by decreasing the Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather systems and livelihoods in polar regions.
The report further highlighted shifting global rainfall patterns linked to climate change.
Above-average rainfall is expected in regions including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030. In contrast, drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon basin and several subtropical regions.
Higher northern latitudes are also expected to experience wetter winter seasons in the coming years.
The WMO said the forecasts are intended to help governments and climate agencies prepare for increasingly immediate climate risks that are no longer distant possibilities but part of the world’s near-term future.
The report was prepared by the UK Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
