With a size of USD 4.18 trillion, India has crossed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. It is also set to overtake Germany to take the position of the third largest by 2030, the government has claimed.
India’s real GDP snowballed 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26, which is reported to be 7.8% up in the first quarter and 7.4% in the fourth quarter.
“With GDP valued at USD 4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years with a projected GDP of USD 7.3 trillion by 2030,” according to the government.
“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well-positioned to sustain this momentum. With the ambition of attaining high middle-income status by 2047—the centenary year of its independence—the country is building on strong foundations of economic growth, structural reforms, and social progress,” the government said.
The IMF has revised India’s growth forecast upward to 6.6 percent for 2025 and 6.2 percent for 2026, while the OECD projects growth of 6.7 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026.
Meanwhile, there has been a strong credit flow to the commercial sector, and demand conditions are said to be firm.
S&P expects the economy to grow by 6.5 percent in the current fiscal year and 6.7 percent in the next. The Asian Development Bank has raised its 2025 growth forecast to 7.2 percent, while Fitch has upgraded its FY26 projection to 7.4 percent, citing stronger consumer demand.
