Yemen is on the brink of a civil war. Escalation among the internationally recognised Yemeni government and the Houthis risks the country to slide-back into a civil war after years of comparatively calm-situation following the 2022 truce brokered by UN. As increment in violence can be seen in areas of strategic importance, UN has warned that Yemen is at a higher risk of full-fledged conflict since the truce deal.
Houthi attacks on military areas in Yemen including Marib and Hadramout mark a major escalation. The two areas targeted by Houthi carries significance for the internationally recognised government because they play a greater role in the economic survival of the state. Reports suggested that 17 Yemeni soldiers and officers were killed and several others injured in the attack. Houthi attacks on military areas of Yemen including Marib and Hadramout resulted in the latest developments of the conflict escalation.
The conflict soon reached other areas as well. According to the Yemeni government, Houthi attacks on civilian neighbourhoods and a camp for displaced people resulted in death of two people and injuring 14 others. These escalations in the conflict carries particular significance as the humanitarian situation in Yemen is already in crisis. A renewal in the conflict will result in more displacements and suffering of the civilians.
On the contrary, the Yemeni government responded with counter-attacks in several areas. On Saturday, Majed al-Nuzaili spoke that a military operation has been undertaken by the Yemeni government in order to retaliate against the Houthis. The continuous escalation in the violence could result in a situation which will be beyond isolated clashes towards a sustained military confrontation
The conflict started in 2014 when Houthis seized the Yemen’s capital Sana’a with Iranian support and succeeded the internationally recognised government. Following the developments in Sana’a, Saudi Arabia intervened by leading a coalition of nine states in a military campaign known as Operation decisive storm in order to curb Iran’s influence and to defeat the Houthis with the support of the government. Saudi failed in its goals leaving Yemen in a critical situation. Although, 2022 truce resulted in the decline in direct violence, but the structural problems played hindrance in establishing peace. Consequently, Yemen remained divide with major parts controlled by Houthis and government exercising control over other parts.
The current escalation also has implications far beyond Yemen. The conflict has become increasingly connected to the wider geopolitical confrontation involving Iran, Israel, the United States and their regional allies. The Houthis have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea making the conflict an important threat to international maritime security. The strategically vital Bab al-Mandab Strait, linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is a major global shipping route. Continued attacks and maritime blockade has disrupt commercial trade, energy shipments and global supply chains.
The situation is further complicated by uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, another crucial energy chokepoint. Any simultaneous disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could have serious consequences for international energy security and global markets.
Preventing this escalation from becoming a full-fledged war should be the top-most priority for United Nations. It has urged both the parties to exercise restraint and be open for dialogue. The central concern should be reducing the probability of 2022 truce to collapse completely.
The current crisis in Yemen is more a wider geopolitical confrontation. The brawling in Marid and Hadramout or the government’s counter-attack, Houthi threats to maritime security or regional tensions linked to Iran are connected with each other. Without diplomacy taking up again, Yemen, once again could become an arena of geopolitical tensions and war, with consequences extending from humanitarian suffering inside the country to global energy and shipping security.
